๐ณ๏ธ All 52
๐บ๐ธ USA 18
๐ฌ๐ง UK 10
๐ช๐บ Europe 12
๐ World 8
๐ Asia-Pacific 4
โ๏ธ Geopolitics 6
โฐ Expiring Soon 5
๐
Upcoming Elections Worldwide Live Odds
All Elections โ
๐บ๐ธ USA 2028
Nov 2028
๐ตDemocrat54%
๐ดRepublican34%
๐ฌ๐ง UK Snap
Dec 2026?
๐ดLabour42%
๐ตTories28%
๐ฉ๐ช Germany
Feb 2025 โ
โฌCDU/CSUWon โ
๐ดSPD2nd
๐ซ๐ท France 2027
Apr 2027
โกLe Pen / RN36%
๐กMacronist28%
๐ฆ๐บ Australia
May 2025
๐ดLabor54%
๐ตCoalition38%
๐ฎ๐ณ India 2029
Apr 2029
๐ BJP62%
๐คINC24%
๐ 2028 US Presidential Polling Tracker
National Average
Swing States
Electoral Map
Democrat
Republican
Undecided / Other
Democratic Nominee
Democratic Party
National Poll Avg47.2%
Prediction Market54%
Fundraising (Q1)$420M
Approval Rating+4.2
Republican Nominee
Republican Party
National Poll Avg42.8%
Prediction Market34%
Fundraising (Q1)$380M
Approval Rating-1.8
๐ All Political Markets 52
๐บ๐ธ USA
Expires Nov 2026
Will the US Democratic Party retain the Senate majority after the 2026 midterms?
YES 48%NO 52%
๐บ๐ธ USA
Expires Dec 2027
Will a US Supreme Court Justice retire or be replaced before end of 2027?
YES 62%NO 38%
๐ฌ๐ง UK
Expires Dec 2026
Will there be a snap UK general election before December 2026?
YES 34%NO 66%
๐ฌ๐ง UK
Expires Dec 2026
Will the UK Labour government pass a wealth tax before the end of 2026?
YES 28%NO 72%
๐ช๐บ Europe
Expires Apr 2027
Who will win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
โกMarine Le Pen36%
๐กMacronist Candidate28%
๐นLeft Union Candidate22%
๐ช๐บ Europe
Expires Dec 2026
Will the European Central Bank cut interest rates to below 2% before end of 2026?
YES 44%NO 56%
โ๏ธ Geopolitics
โฐ 6 months
Will there be a formal ceasefire agreement in Ukraine before October 2026?
YES 42%NO 58%
โ๏ธ Geopolitics
Expires Dec 2026
Will NATO officially expand to include any new member states before end of 2026?
YES 34%NO 66%
๐ฆ๐บ Australia
โฐ May 2025
Will the Australian Labor Party win the 2025 federal election?
YES 64%NO 36%
๐ฐ Political News & Analysis Live Feed
More News โ
๐บ๐ธ USA 2028
Market Impact โ
New polling shows Democratic nominee extends lead in key swing states as Republican race remains contested
A fresh ABC/Washington Post survey shows the leading Democratic contender ahead by 6 points in Pennsylvania and 4 in Michigan โ both critical Electoral College states.
โ๏ธ Ukraine
Market Neutral
Ukraine peace talks resume in Istanbul but analysts remain cautious about ceasefire timeline
Diplomatic sources confirm back-channel negotiations are ongoing. Markets slightly adjusted the ceasefire probability upward from 38% to 42% following the talks announcement.
๐ฌ๐ง UK
Labour Pressure โ
UK snap election speculation grows as Labour approval rating drops to 18-month low amid economic concerns
Opposition parties are calling for an early vote after the latest Ipsos poll showed Labour's net approval at -8. The snap election market probability edged up from 28% to 34%.
๐ซ๐ท France
Le Pen โ
Marine Le Pen consolidates 2027 election lead as centrist vote fragments, prediction markets push her to 36%
Three separate French polling firms now show the National Rally leader ahead in first-round projections, with the centrist bloc failing to coalesce around a single candidate.
๐ Top Political Predictors
This Month
All Time
๐ฏ Best Predictions Leaderboard
| # | Trader | Accuracy | Markets | Win Streak | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ๐ณ๏ธ PolOracle | 96.2% | 82 | ๐ฅ 18 | +$84,200 |
| 2 | ๐ง PolitiQuant | 92.4% | 146 | ๐ฅ 11 | +$42,800 |
| 3 | ๐ SwingStateKing | 89.1% | 64 | ๐ฅ 6 | +$28,400 |
| 4 | ๐ GeoWatcher | 85.8% | 112 | ๐ฅ 4 | +$18,200 |
| 5 | โ๏ธ PolicyWonk | 82.3% | 58 | ๐ฅ 3 | +$12,400 |
โ
Recently Resolved
Full History โ
Did the Fed hold interest rates at their March 2026 meeting?
YES
$1.2M vol
Did Germany's CDU/CSU win the most seats in the 2025 federal election?
YES
$2.8M vol
Was Scotland granted a second independence referendum before Jan 2026?
NO
$480K vol
Did the US House pass a government spending bill before the March 2026 deadline?
YES
$640K vol